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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Analysis

I went into this draft with a plan as I do most drafts.
First, I didn't want to draft a quarterback until late in the draft. There are so many good fantasy quarterbacks and the difference from one to the next is generally small compared to the difference between top running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers.
Second, I would go for the best available player that is relatively young.
Third, receivers and tight ends have become more important as teams pass more.
Fourth, I was looking for players, coming off sub par years that could have huge upside.

I Figured the first three picks would be Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Julius Jones. I was right. The problem came in that I had grouped Domanick Davis, Brian Westbrook, and Willie Parker all in the same class. Followed by Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, and some others. I really like Kevin Jones this year in Mike Martz's new Lions offense. I thought Westbook and Fast Willie Parker may be too small to be a top line back for the whole year. That left Domanick Davis. Coming off a season that limited him to 13 games but being very productive in most of them I thought he could have a break out season. So with my first pick I chose Domanick Davis.

I followed up with Jamal Lewis. I wanted to have a back that would get carries near the goal line. Last year with Julius Jones and Warrick Dunn, they had small touchdown numbers because of bigger backs getting goal line carries. Willie Parker last year with Bettis is a prime example. So by taking Lewis I was betting on a recovery to his old self. In addition, the Ravens brought in a competant passer in McNair and a backup in Mike Anderson who will push Jamal.
I then had to sit and wait as the rest of the runningbacks and top wide receivers went off the board.

My 3rd pick came around and Anquan Boldin was sitting there. Top flight WR and I took himno questions asked.

I followed that up with Jeremy Shockey. Antonio Gates was gone but I thought having Rivers through to him instead of Brees would affect his numbers. Shockey is on an up and coming team in a competitive division. Eli Manning has a lot of weapons around him but if Shockey stays healthy he could have a monster year over the middle. Plus, he gets a lot of red zone looks. Quarterbacks started to go now.

With my next pick I looked for upside and chose Laurence Maroney, the 1st year back from Minnesota who is slated to back up and eventually take over for Corey Dillon. I think he could be a real sleeper who is dominant half way through the year if Dillon breaks down.

I filled out my starting WR with Laveranues Coles. He has great chemistry with both Chad Pennington and Patrick Ramsey and as long as the QB stays upright he will put up good numbers. The Jets may be pretty bad and be out of games early. If that happens, look for them to throw often and hopefully to Mr. Coles.

Then with most QBs gone I took Mike Vick. It was a gamble but not so late in the draft(7th round). Maybe he can put it all together this year.

I then looked at a defense. In the past I have not cared about the Defense and just picked them with my last two picks. Last year the Bears D won me many a game because they put up huge numbers. Same with the Patriots the year before. That made me change my tune. I picked the Denver D in Mile High as most of the top defenses were off the board.

I filled out the squad with Michael Jenkins(3rd year wide out) Michael Clayton(3rd year wide out) and Mike Anderson(Jamal's back up). I then got Steve McNair to back up Vick. I then filled out the line up with David Akers, Jason Hanson, a flier on Marcedes Lewis(highly touted tight end for Jax) and the St. Louis D. Wheew!
Our draft started at 9:45 pm and ended shortly after 1am. It was grueling, with computer freeze ups, people taking awhile to pick and autopilot picking 7 quarterbacks for some people. We as a league, came to the decision to do whatever possible to not be an online draft ever again.

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